Application of the Group Method of Data Handling Network in Intermittent Time Series Data Forecasting

Abstract

Intermittent data, characterized by sporadic and irregular occurrences, have successive zero values in time series, had present unique challenges for modeling and analysis. Forecasting using intermittent data is not easy to do. This paper presents an application of the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) in modeling and forecasting intermittent data. GMDH models excel in capturing non-linear patterns, handling missing or sparse data, and adapting to changing dynamics. By iteratively selecting the most informative variables and estimating their coefficients, GMDH constructs a hierarchical network of interconnected models that can effectively handle intermittent data. The forecasting results show that GMDH is able to follow the pattern of actual data. The mean deviation accuracy analysis shows a value of 72.22%. The findings showcase the potential of GMDH as a valuable tool in addressing the challenges associated with intermittent data and offer insights into its application across various domains.