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Abstract
Realizing the maintenance cost distribution and predicting the future tendency are important for facility managers to efficiently arrange the limited budget. This paper collects 16,228 maintenance records of a representative hospital in Taiwan and further analyzes the cost distribution. Besides, by calculating the maintenance cost of per square meter of floor area per year (dollar/m2/year) and comparing with the previous studies, this paper also points out the relationship between maintenance cost and the operation ages. moreover, this paper establishes a hybrid grey model termed as EGM(1,1), which adopting exponential series to identify the residual error series resulted from grey model, to predict the maintenance cost. The repair cost of hospital building from 1998 to 2006 is adopted to demonstrate the applicability and practicability of EGM(1,1). Results show that the proposed model can predict the tendency precisely. Santrauka Norint efektyviai išdėstyti ribotą biudžetą, pastatų ūkio valdytojai turi suprasti eksploatacijos sąnaudų pasiskirstymą ir sudaryti ateities tendencijų prognozes. Šiame darbe surinkti 16 228 įrašai apie reprezentacinės Taivano ligoninės eksploataciją ir jais remiantis analizuojamas sąnaudų pasiskirstymas. Apskaičiavus metines eksploatacijos sąnaudas vienam kvadratiniam metrui (doleriai/m2/metus) ir palyginus jas su ankstesniais tyrimais, darbe taip pat parodomas ryšys tarp eksploatacijos sąnaudų ir objekto amžiaus. Be to, darbe sudaromas hibridinis pilkasis modelis, pavadintas EGM(1,1), kuriame naudojant eksponentines eilutes nustatomos liktinės paklaidų eilutės, gautos pilkajame modelyje, taip siekiant prognozuoti eksploatacines sąnaudas. Naudojant 1998–2006 m. ligoninės pastato remontui išleistą sumą pristatomas EGM(1,1) taikymas ir praktiškumas. Rezultatai rodo, kad pasiūlytas modelis tendencijas gali prognozuoti tiksliai.
Highlights
Well-maintained hospital buildings can support increasing requirements of hospital functions, including medical cares, emergency refuges, medical research and education etc
Owing to the limited budget, realizing the historical cost distribution and predicting the future tendency of maintenance cost are important for facility managers to arrange reasonable budget to meet the required functions
Based on the collected data, this paper aims to: (1) analyze the actual cost distribution of National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH) and compare the cost distribution of buildings with different life cycle stages; and (2) establish an effective prediction model to catch the development tendency of maintenance cost
Summary
Well-maintained hospital buildings can support increasing requirements of hospital functions, including medical cares, emergency refuges, medical research and education etc. The previous studies can provide precious information and knowledge with respect to maintenance cost distribution of hospitals (Neely and Neathammer, 1991; Nesje, 2002; Lavy and Shohet, 2007b; Ciarapica et al, 2008) this paper aims to provide an alternative to realize this subject. Based on the collected data, this paper aims to: (1) analyze the actual cost distribution of NTUH and compare the cost distribution of buildings with different life cycle stages; and (2) establish an effective prediction model to catch the development tendency of maintenance cost. Based on the collected data, a hybrid grey model named EGM(1,1) is proposed in section 3 as the prediction model of maintenance cost.
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