Application of the combined probabilisticstatistical methods of quantitative assessment of strength and durability of main pipelines with single and combined defects

A V Salnikov,A A Ignatik

doi:10.31660/0445-0108-2019-5-115-124

Abstract

Main gas and oil pipelines are the most important objects of the fuel and energy complex of the state. They are subjected to strict requirements for reliable and safe operation. Therefore, it is necessary to assess their strength (current strength) and durability (prediction strength) when operating main pipelines. The wall of the pipes of the existing main pipelines is subjected to various loads and influences. To prevent pipeline failure, strength and durability calculations are performed. The parameters of the load and mechanical resistance of the pipes are taken into account when calculating. Therefore, the "load — resistance" model is used to quantify the reliability of the main pipeline. This paper presents the main theoretical provisions of the methodology for assessing the strength and durability of trunk pipelines with single and combined defects in the framework of a combined probabilistic-statistical approach, and also an example of the use of the technique for a section of a trunk pipeline examined by an inline flaw detector.

Highlights

The wall of the pipes of the existing main pipelines is subjected to various loads and influences
The "load — resistance" model is used to quantify the reliability of the main pipeline
This paper presents the main theoretical provisions of the methodology for assessing the strength and durability of trunk pipelines with single and combined defects in the framework of a combined probabilistic-statistical approach, and an example of the use of the technique for a section of a trunk pipeline examined by an in-line flaw detector

Summary

Рекомендации и расчетные схемы были применены в среде

Полученная выборка значений pпред представлена в таблице 1. Выборка значений предельных давлений pпред (в МПа), рассчитанных применительно к дефектам потери металла, для участка трубопровода 10–15 км при t = 0. «СРЗНАЧ» в Microsoft Excel) и стандартное отклонение σp пред = 1,0023 МПа (команда «СТАНДОТКЛОН» в Microsoft Excel). Далее необходимо определить закон распределения, которому подчиняется ряд значений pпред. Расчетные значения критерия χ2 (Kрасч) для разных законов распределения случайных величин при t = 0

Закон распределения

Значения коэффициентов

Закон распределения Вейбулла Логнормальный

Библиографический список