Abstract
Issues of applying the asymptotic theory of extreme values to the risks analysis of breaking-out of the largest-area yearly forest fires, were considered. As original material, the paper authors used data on areas of the forest fires occurring in the south of Russia’s Khabarovsk Territory from 1968 to 2017. For each year, the largest-area forest fire was selected from the considered period of time. In all, 50 fires were selected for this period of time (according to quantity of the years in the period). This sample analysis showed that the general population of these fires areas (where the sample was selected) has probability distribution of extreme values of the first type. An analytical expression for the probability distribution function of this general population was received. On the basis of this distribution analysis, a forecast was made concerning risks of the breaking-out and the average recurrence periods of such fires for various values of the burning area. The conducted analysis showed that in 87.5% of cases, in the south of Khabarovsk territory, the largest-area yearly forest fires, with an area of from 50 to 400 km2, will break out with the 1.2 years recurrence interval. In other words, almost every year, with the exception of these rare events when fires with other areas will occur. It was supposed that the probability distribution of extreme values of the first type can be applied not only to the forest area of Russia’s Khabarovsk territory, but also to other zones in the world with large forest areas.
Highlights
The forest fires are one of the most dangerous emergency situations
As the forest fire is notable for fortuity of breaking-out as well as fortuity and complicatedness of its spread, the research, which is based on the use of probabilistic-statistical methods of processing such fire parameters as area, burning time, quantity of fires per a year, damage, expenses for firefighting, etc. are of great importance in analyzing the fire situation of a region (Chang, et al, 2016, Eugenio et al, 2019; Grishin & Filkov, 2011)
This paper covers the issues of applying the extreme values statistics to forecasting and assessing the risk of breaking-out of the largest-area yearly forest fires as exemplified by the south of Russia’s
Summary
The forest fires are one of the most dangerous emergency situations. In this connection, the issues of forecasting and assessing the risk of the breaking-out and the recurrence periods of potential large forest fires are of particular importance.This research is based on analyzing the meteorological, including synoptic data (air temperature, precipitation amount, air humidity, wind velocity and direction, etc.), information about the forest composition (average height, forest stand frequency, floristic composition, area and form of the forest tract) and the relief. The forest fires are one of the most dangerous emergency situations. In this connection, the issues of forecasting and assessing the risk of the breaking-out and the recurrence periods of potential large forest fires are of particular importance. As the forest fire is notable for fortuity of breaking-out as well as fortuity and complicatedness of its spread, the research, which is based on the use of probabilistic-statistical methods of processing such fire parameters as area, burning time, quantity of fires per a year, damage, expenses for firefighting, etc. This paper covers the issues of applying the extreme values statistics to forecasting and assessing the risk of breaking-out of the largest-area yearly forest fires as exemplified by the south of Russia’s On the basis of comprehensive analysis of these data, various maps of risks of the fire danger appearance for an area are built (Dieu et al, 2018, pp.104-116; Eugenio et al, 2016, pp. 65-71; Moayedi et al, 2020; Zhiwei et al, 2015, pp. 106-116), and the mathematical models of fire spread are developed, and only on this base the fire situation is forecasted
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