Application of the Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machines in Forest Fire Prediction in the Guangxi Autonomous Region, China

Abstract

The study of forest fire prediction is of great environmental and scientific significance. China’s Guangxi Autonomous Region has a high incidence rate of forest fires. At present, there is little research on forest fires in this area. The application of the artificial neural network and support vector machines (SVM) in forest fire prediction in this area can provide data for forest fire prevention and control in Guangxi. In this paper, based on Guangxi’s 2010–2018 satellite monitoring hotspot data, meteorology, terrain, vegetation, infrastructure, and socioeconomic data, the researchers determined the main forest fire driving factors in Guangxi. They used feature selection and backpropagation neural networks and radial basis SVM to build forest fire prediction models. Finally, the researchers use the accuracy, precision, and area under the characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) and other indicators to evaluate the predictive performance of the two models. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the BP neural network and SVM is 92.16% and 89.89%, respectively. As both results are over 85%, the requirements of prediction accuracy is met. These results can be used for forest fire prediction in the Guangxi Autonomous Region. Specifically, the accuracy of the BP neural network was 0.93, which was higher than that of the SVM model (0.89); the recall of the SVM model was 0.84, which was lower than the BANN model (0.92), and the AUC value of the SVM model was 0.95, which was lower than the BP neural network model. The obtained results confirm that the BP neural network model can provide more prediction accuracy than support vector machines and is therefore more suitable for forest fire prediction in Guangxi, China. This research provides the necessary theoretical basis and data support for application in the field of forestry of the Guangxi Autonomous Region, China.