Application of the arctangent function model in the prediction of ground mining subsidence deformation: a case study from Fushun City, Liaoning Province, China

Abstract

Ground subsidence disasters are characterized by wide distribution, long duration, and high-intensity damage, which can cause serious damages to surface buildings, underground pipelines, aquifers, and so on. Therefore, research on the stability evaluation of ground subsidence and subsidence deformation prediction is of great significance. This paper takes ground subsidence in Fushun City, Liaoning Province, China, as a case study. Combined with data from 60 monitoring points in the subsidence areas, the final settlement deformation values of all monitoring points were obtained through an arctangent function model using non-linear curve fitting with monitoring data. The proposed model could enable the prediction of settlement deformation trends of the monitoring points. Correlation coefficients are all above 0.937, indicating the strong reliability of the prediction model. By processing the final settlement deformation predictive values of the 60 monitoring points, a final settlement contour map was drawn with the help of the Kriging interpolation method. This map could forecast the whole distribution characteristics of ground settlement deformation in the research area. Then, risk zoning can be obtained by combining the settlement rate and residual settlement deformation in the study area. The research results could provide a basis for future city construction and regional planning in Fushun City.