Application of Supply Chain Principles to Pandemic Planning

Abstract

Problem definition: When designing and operating a system for allocating and distributing vaccines during a pandemic, we need to provide the most protection, for the most people, in the least amount of time. To reduce the risk of illness and the chance of virus variants, time is essential. Therefore, the system's objective should be to maximize Vaccinated Person-Days (VPDs), a term we define as the number of days of protection obtained by persons in society. To maximize VPDs, we need to minimize the time from a manufacturer's production of vaccines to the time persons receive shots in their arms. Methodology/results: We demonstrate that maximizing VPDs can be stated as a linear program and provide methods for finding the optimal vaccination strategy. Next, we discuss how principles of supply chain management guide the design of a well-functioning vaccine supply chain. We present a modeling approach for a three-echelon system plus algorithms for daily vaccine allocation in a rolling horizon manner. We demonstrate the consequences of both box size and the number and capacity of dispensing locations on achieving system objectives. The results are dramatic for the small state in our case study, with profound implications for a national distribution system.Managerial implications: Our proposed strategy was not followed in the United States for COVID-19 in 2021. To minimize missed vaccination opportunities, fewer and higher throughput dispensing locations were needed when vaccine demand exceeded supply. Furthermore, policy makers should require manufacturers to deliver vaccines in box sizes consistent with dispensing location capabilities specified by public health officials. If vaccines were allocated and distributed according to our proposed strategy, more people would have been vaccinated sooner, fewer people would have symptoms, fewer people would have been hospitalized and fewer people would have succumbed to the disease.