Abstract
Water resources in the Middle East are very scarce and the management of these resources is a challenge. In this paper, the use of stochastic analysis, modeling, and simulation (SAMS) software package to selected hydrologic data in the Middle East (namely Jordan and Saudi Arabia) are explored. Modeling and simulation experiments were conducted to test the capabilities of SAMS to be used for stochastic modeling and simulation in the Middle East region. The hydrologic data used in this study consist of historic observed rainfall data of different lengths at various sites in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The models used in this study include: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models, multi-site contemporaneous autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models, and temporal disaggregation models. Results indicate that SAMS can be used as a tool for stochastic modeling and simulation of hydrologic data in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. It is important for managers and decision makers of water resources in these countries to be able to use sophisticated tools such as SAMS while deciding water management policies in these countries.
Highlights
The region of Middle East suffers from water resource scarcity
The results shown are the MOM parameter estimates
SAMS was used for modeling and simulation of periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models to the monthly rainfall data for Surat Obeida, Saudi Arabia [7]
Summary
The region of Middle East suffers from water resource scarcity. The situation is getting worse due to climate change, conflicts, wars, and economic and political instability. The use of sophisticated tools for better management of water resources is vital for that region. SAMS is a software package that deals with stochastic analysis, modeling, and simulation of hydrologic time series, and runs under Windows operating system. SAMS capabilities can be classified into three categories: analysis of historic data, model fitting and parameter estimation, and synthetic data generation. The second application of SAMS is model fitting It includes parameter estimation and model testing for alternative univariate and multivariate annual and monthly stochastic models. These include ARMA, PARMA, multisite ARMA, and disaggregation models [1]. We explore the use of SAMS as a modeling and simulation tool in the Middle East. Providing water resource managers in the region with powerful modeling and simulation tools is vital for better management of water resources in the region
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
