Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate the spatial dependence between agrometeorological variables and upland cotton yield the microregion of Cariri Oriental, Paraíba state (Brazil), using weighted spatial modeling system. In this study, we used the historical agricultural production data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), observed rainfall data from the Executive Water Management Agency of Paraíba State (AESA), and air temperature averages estimated by the Estima_T software. Spatial regression models (classical - CR, autoregressive - SARM, and spatial error - SEM) were used to correlate the dependent variable (upland cotton yield) with covariates (agrometeorological variables). Fitted model parameters were estimated using the Maximum Likelihood method. Model performance was evaluated based on coefficient of determination (R2), maximum likelihood function logarithm (AIC), and spatial residue analysis. Moreover, an exploratory spatial analysis allowed us to verify spatial autocorrelation between upland cotton yield and agrometeorological elements, using statistical tools such as Moran’s index I.
Highlights
Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. var. latifolium Hutch) is one of the most grown crops worldwide due to the extensive use of its fiber in the textile industry
The study area is in the microregion of Cariri Oriental, in Paraíba state, Brazil (Figure 1), which encompasses 12 municipalities
These lowest cotton yields may have been due to several factors such as unfavorable climatic conditions, soil depletion, improper crop management, among others
Summary
Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. var. latifolium Hutch) is one of the most grown crops worldwide due to the extensive use of its fiber in the textile industry. Latifolium Hutch) is one of the most grown crops worldwide due to the extensive use of its fiber in the textile industry. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global lint cotton production in the 2018/19 harvest season was estimated at about 26 million tons. In Brazil, it represents 55.7% of the raw materials and is the main natural fiber used in the textile industry (ABRAPA, 2018). Brazil is the third largest producer (27,258.000 tons) and the second largest exporter of cotton (847,500 tons) in the world (ABRAPA, 2018). Northeast Brazil, in turn, is the second largest producer of cotton in the country and contributes by 26% to the national production. The textile park in this region is one of the largest centers for purchase of manufactured cotton in Latin America (Oliveira et al, 2012)
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