Abstract
Weather forecasting has been getting more attention from researchers and becoming influential factor for effective policy and planning at local and global level. Climatic variations have been directly affected by global warming and happened to rise atmospheric temperature; as a resultant about 0.74°C temperature of earth has been increased during last 100 years. In Pakistan, daily environmental temperature has been increasing; on average there is 0.6°C rise of daily environmental temperature has been observed. This research has been focused on the modeling and forecasting about daily temperature of Faisalabad and Lahore districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The results showed that simple exponential technique is more appropriate technique for modeling the temperature data as compared to other methods such as Holt’s exponential and Holt’s winter exponential techniques. The forecasting of temperature data was made on the optimum value of smoothing constant. The selection of optimal smoothing constant was based on the minimum values of mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The application of simple exponential technique is therefore recommended for prediction of climatic variables like rainfall, humidity and wind speed because of its forecasting accuracy for short term period. This research will be helpful to researchers and policy makers who are associated with environment-based work.
Highlights
Climate is the average weather for a specific place at certain time with respect to different climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind taken over 3 decades (Vucijak et al 2012)
Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) The SES method assumes that the level of time series should vary about a constant level; whose objective is to smooth the given time series data like moving average; which has been used for future forecasting
The results indicate that data the simple exponential produce very reliable forecasting as forecasted values are very close to the current values
Summary
Climate is the average weather for a specific place at certain time with respect to different climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind taken over 3 decades (Vucijak et al 2012). The climate changes have been affecting severely the agriculture sector of developing countries, like Pakistan whose economy mainly based on agriculture. Agriculture sector has been facing serious environmental challenges like temperature rise, drought and floods. These factors happened to increase the losses of crops’ yield (Ali et al 2017; Raza et al 2019). The superficial research initiates usually cause adverse climate affects in Pakistan; like in recent past: the drought during 1998-2001 and flood during 2010. Both of the climate incidences affected the socio-economic development of the Pakistan. It is very important to model the temperature patterns using statistical methods
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