Abstract
In the frame of the UPStrat-MAFA “Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources” project, seismic hazard has been assessed in Portugal in terms of macroseismic intensity. Assessment has been performed by using a probabilistic approach based on the statistical analysis of local seismic histories (i.e., the record of seismic effects at each locality) performed by a new version of the SASHA code (D’Amico and Albarello in Res Lett 79(5):663–671, 2008) on purpose modified to account for this specific area of study. Local seismic histories are reconstructed by considering documented effects or indirect estimates deduced from epicentral information or numerical simulations. All these pieces of evidence are combined taking into account relevant uncertainty and statistical completeness of information locally available. Distribution of expected maximum intensity (i.e., the maximum intensity characterized by a fixed exceedance probability for a exposure time of 50 years) has been obtained and compared with the one deduced from alternative approaches.
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