Application of run-off model as a contribution to the torrential flood risk management in Topčiderska Reka watershed, Serbia

Abstract

This paper deals with developing of hydrological flow model for the torrential watershed of the Topciderska River, located in the Belgrade macro-region, in which torrential flood events have had destructive human and material consequences. The aim of the paper was to show that model, developed by hydrological software SHETRAN, is useful tool enabling the simulation of physical properties and hydrological processes in watersheds, having a significant place in decision support system within the torrential flood risk management. Results achievement was enabled through three phases: (1) Sensitivity analysis showed that the closest hydrograph to registered hydrograph is modelled with averaged values of parameters; (2) model calibration was done by calibration of four main parameters with significant influence on flow component (hydraulic conductivity of soil and rock, Strickler roughness coefficient for overland and river network flow) in case of the torrential flood event from 10th July 1999; and (3) model verification was done by input of calibrated values in case of two another torrential flood events (1996, 1999). Statistical analysis of correspondence of modelled and registered discharges showed that due to correlation coefficient (0.95–0.98) and determination coefficient (0.90–0.96) as well as probability of error according to F test, good results are achieved. Considering obtained results, developed model should be a part of torrential flood risk management in watershed of Topciderska River.