Abstract
Nowadays, considering uncertainties and complexities in dam engineering problems, implementation of risk analysis is essential more than before. On the other hand, reliability analysis is an efficient approach which can be applied in order to quantify the identified risks. By applying such analyses, a designer can therefore define and develop different scenarios in order to evaluate the effect of identified risks. The risk management process can be further implemented within a value management cycle where the potential alternatives should be evaluated and finally the best-known alternative must be selected. In order to measure the efficiency of risk analysis approach in a dam, a case study is studied and then implemented. The result of the reliability analysis for the piping phase shows a conservative approach with a low risk during the dam design process. Based on the value analysis, two different scenarios are then developed. In the first scenario, the piping phase is considered as a high risk issue; and in the second scenario, the risk is considered as its minimum acceptable threshold. Based on the obtained results, this can be summarized: utilizing risk analysis for improvement of the decision-making process can be efficiently defined and developed as a fundamental strategy in water resource projects.
Highlights
Due to the large amount of investment spent in developing water resource projects, a special understanding is required toward dam safety issues
The goal of the risk management process is to optimize a project using analytical techniques, in practice, it is extensively used in order to increase the degree of safety and reliability (Thompson 2004)
It is pointed out that the risk analysis is frequently applied in other types of construction projects
Summary
Due to the large amount of investment spent in developing water resource projects, a special understanding is required toward dam safety issues. Kim (2010) developed a risk performance measurement model which basically incorporated the earned value project management system By applying this approach, he put schedule/ cost and risk performance indexes together. Zavadskas et al (2010) applied a multi-attribute decision-making model, namely, TOPSIS to assess the risks of a mega construction project They could consider different factors affecting construction risk management. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2013, 19(3): 364Á374 one of the strong motivations for going through extensive researches in this field (Stewart 2000) Within this framework, utilizing the value engineering approach may likely increase the efficiency of a design; by comparing the value engineering and risk management processes, it can be stated that the integration of these procedures has some difficulties, but has many advantages as well as other hybrid approaches and well-tuned integrated systems. The piping phase and intensive seepage in some zones of the dam foundation are likely expected to occur. In order to utilize the concept of risk and value management in this dam, risk analysis is implemented through the piping phase
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