Abstract
BackgroundFloods are the most common and most expensive natural hazard, and they are expected to become more frequent as the climate changes. This article presents research that used re/insurance catastrophe models to estimate the influence of climate change on flood-related losses. The geographic focus of the study was the Canadian Maritimes—specifically Halifax, Nova Scotia—and it sought to determine how municipal risks due to rainfall-driven riverine floods could change as a result of climate change.ResultsFindings show that annual flood losses could increase by up to 300% under a business-as-usual climate scenario by the end of the century (i.e., no mitigation or adaptation), even without accounting for changes to the built environment that could increase exposure (e.g., no population or economic growth).ConclusionsIncreasing flood risk demands an open discussion about how much risk is acceptable to the community and what controls on further growth of exposure are necessary. Moreover, projected increases in flood losses put into question long-term insurability in the Halifax area, and highlight a broader problem facing manyother areas in Canada as well.
Highlights
Floods are the most common and most expensive natural hazard, and they are expected to become more frequent as the climate changes
Since studies in Nova Scotia have focused primarily on coastal flood impacts, this study offered an opportunity to develop new knowledge about flood risks on Canada’s East coast
The researchers partnered with JBA Risk Management, a firm with international expertise in natural hazard modelling, to gain access to data outputs generated by its proprietary 2D hydrodynamic flood model
Summary
Floods are the most common and most expensive natural hazard, and they are expected to become more frequent as the climate changes. Private sector catastrophe models are proprietary in nature, so access is restricted to insurers who are willing and able to invest in data and technology As a result, they are often unavailable for public research studies and mass. By using catastrophe models to identify areas that are prone to flood damage, insurers generate damage and loss information that could be used to improve maps of at-risk communities (Surminski and Thieken 2017). Such maps could enable governments to prioritize investments in flood mitigation and encourage homeowners to purchase flood insurance. Catastrophe models generate loss estimates resulting from both frequent and rare floods, which could offer governments a basis to weigh the costs and benefits of flood mitigation investments (e.g., structural protections along rivers), regulate land use to reduce property exposure, and determine ways to share flood risk among governments, private stakeholders and homeowners
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