Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to Pore Pressure and Fracture Gradient Prediction

Abstract

Abstract The present deterministic pore pressure and fracture gradient prediction techniques simplify the input variables from a statistical range of data to a deterministic value, thereby producing over-simplified deterministic pore pressure and fracture gradient results. As a consequence, we lose the ability to quantitatively analyze risks, and we cannot quantify the uncertainties of our pore pressure and fracture gradient prediction. This paper describes a methodology for quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of pore pressure and fracture gradient prediction and shows that applications of QRA in this area will improve the techniques of pore pressure and fracture gradient calculations. In addition, QRA will open a full range of new applications in risk prediction, risks evaluation, risk management, decision making, real-time kick and loss-return risk monitoring, risk control, and casing design.