Application of Projection Pursuit Model to Water Resources Carrying Capacity Assessment in Longitudinal Ridge-gorge Region of Yunnan

Abstract

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) assessment is an effective way to evaluate the coordinated development of water resources, economic society and ecological environment, thus, it is significant to study WRCC to realize the harmony among water resources, economy and society in region. In this paper, an index system for evaluating WRCC was constructed from the perspective of water quantity and water quality. Moreover, the projection pursuit technique was applied to evaluate WRCC. Based on the grade division standard of WRCC, the projection function which could reflect the variability of the WRCC was constructed, and genetic algorithm was introduced to optimize the function and seek the optimum projection vector, while the projection pursuit model to evaluation of WRCC was built by the data of the vector. WRCC of the 80 counties in Longitudinal Ridge-gorge Region of Yunnan was evaluated by this model, and the results which accord with the fact were gained. The result showed that WRCC is dynamic with evaluation index value was presented as the logistic curve. The WRCC in research region was good overall, but that in three counties and four counties was already in overload and nearly overload, respectively. Potential of WRCC in mid and western of research region was higher than the other area. The evaluation results were given with continuous real number, which could reveal the temporal-spatial change characteristics of WRCC accurately. Evaluation model of WRCC based on projection pursuit model was practical and feasible for dynamic evaluation of regional WRCC.