Application of probabilistic method in maximum tsunami height prediction considering stochastic seabed topography

Abstract

Uncertainty is a significant challenge in tsunami hazard analysis. Tsunami heights are affected by complex factors and change constantly during propagation. The heights of tsunami have random characteristics. This study proposes that the water depths (related to seabed topography) are the most important factors that affect tsunami height. But across the globe, a considerable area of seabed topography has not been measured. So it is necessary to use the method of uncertainty to consider the water depth. The Wiener process is utilized to quantify the random changes of the water depth, which can better describe the situation that water depths change in a non-monotonic way. Considering the uncertainty of water depth, a Weiner process-based probabilistic model was established for predicting the maximum tsunami height, which is different from the maximum tsunami height deterministic or stochastic model previously studied with higher prediction efficiency and good prediction accuracy. The probability distribution of maximum tsunami heights was calculated using the stochastic model. The mean value of the maximum tsunami heights was very similar to the average value of 165 actual observations of maximum tsunami heights collected from 1997 to 2017.