Abstract
Based on the principle of weather dynamics, this paper studies that the pressure gradient, the temperature gradient and the high-altitude guiding wind are the three major types of factors that affect strong winds, and forms three strong wind prediction factor groups. Multiple indexes are transformed into a few linearly independent comprehensive indexes by principal component analysis (PCA). After the factor index is standardized, the comprehensive index of gale forecast is obtained based on PCA. The test results show that the Beibu Gulf gale wind speed has a good corresponding relationship with the gale forecast comprehensive index (the first 24 hours), and the trend basically corresponds to the peak-valley value, which shows that the comprehensive index has a good indication significance for gale forecast. The comprehensive index 30 can be taken as the starting threshold for forecasting strong winds in Beibu Gulf, which has a good reference value for forecasting the presence or absence of strong winds and is a useful discussion for quantifying the forecasting method of weather conceptual model.
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