Application of Poliheuristic Methodology to a Sequence of Boris Yeltsin's Decisions During the 1995 Hostage Crisis in Budyonnovsk

Abstract

The Hostage Crisis in Budyonnovsk was a watershed of Chechen terrorist activity in the 1990's. Applied Decision Analysis (ADA) and Poliheuristic Theory of Decision (See Mintz - 2004, 2005) methodology is applied in this paper to a sequence of two decisions made by Boris Yeltsin during the Budyonnovsk hospital hostage crisis in 1995: 1. The decision to use force against the Chechen terrorists in an attempt to rescue the hostages. 2. Following the failure of the Russian Special Forces to avoid hostage casualties during their attempt to storm the hospital building, the decision to negotiate with the hostages was taken. Yeltsin authorized Prime Minster Chernomyrdin to conduct the negotiations. In order order to examine the sequential relationship, each decision is individually approached with the Poliheuristic perspective in the framework of the Applied Decision Analysis matrix. With this methodology, the paper examines the effects of the outcome of the first decision, on the dimensions, dimension strategies and the final choice of alternatives in the second decision.