Application of optimized LSTM in prediction of the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19

Abstract

This paper proposes an optimized Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM+) model for predicting cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Germany, the UK, Italy, and Japan. The LSTM+ model incorporates two key optimizations: (1) fine-adjustment of parameters and (2) a ‘re-prediction’ process that utilizes the latest prediction results from the previous iteration. The performance of the LSTM+ model is evaluated and compared with that of Backpropagation (BP) and traditional LSTM models. The results demonstrate that the LSTM+ model significantly outperforms both BP and LSTM models, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of less than 0.6%. Additionally, two illustrative examples employing the LSTM+ model further validate its general applicability and practical performance for predicting cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases.