Application of Multinomial Logistic Regression to Model the Impact of Rainfall Genesis on the Performance of Storm Overflows: Case Study

Abstract

In this study, a mathematical model was proposed to analyze the performance of storm overflows. The model included the influence of rainfall genesis on the duration of storm overflow, its volume, and the maximum instantaneous flow. The multinomial logistic regression model, which has not been used so far to model objects located in a stormwater system, was proposed to simulate the duration of storm overflow. The Iman–Conover method, using the theoretical cumulative distributions determined on the basis of 45 – year rainfall sequences, was adopted to simulate the rainfall characteristics describing the overflow performance (total and maximum 30-min rainfall depth and duration). The simulations showed a significant impact of rainfall genesis on the parameters of the storm overflow. The model and the results presented in this study can be used at the stage of dimensioning storm overflows and to create an early warning system against undesirable phenomena in the stormwater system within urban catchments.