Abstract
In this study, a computerized mathematical method represented by Monte Carlo simulation was used to predict the travel time of the groundwater flow in the Iraqi western desert. During the run of the simulations, all the hydraulic parameters of Darcy’s Law were fixed but the hydraulic conductivity. The input data of the hydraulic conductivity is compared to the triangular distribution function to find the best number of iteration to run the simulations. The results showed that an iteration number of 5000 was enough to achieve best match between the input data of the hydraulic conductivity and the fitted distribution function. In addition, the estimated travel time of the groundwater flow is broadly varied through the entire area and ranges from 1983 years to 113 741 years based on 10 000 m of travel distance. Furthermore, hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has high impact on the estimated travel time of the groundwater flow. However, head difference of groundwater elevation among the selected wells considerably influences the expected travel time of the groundwater flow.
Highlights
Reliable predictions of groundwater flow and other hydraulic properties associated with uncertainties have been widely sought
The available data of several wells located in the Iraqi western desert which are designated by the yellow color in Fig. 1 and listed in Table (1) as well as many existing wells in this region, which are described elsewhere (Al-Jiburi & Al-Basrawi, 2009; Al-Jiburi & Al-Basrawi, 2007), were used to run a computerized mathematical method represented by Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the travel time of the groundwater in this area
A number of 5000 iterations was used to run all the simulations to estimate the likelihood of the travel time of the groundwater flow of each selected pair of wells
Summary
Reliable predictions of groundwater flow and other hydraulic properties associated with uncertainties have been widely sought. To find or predict groundwater flow of an aquifer, it is necessary to identify the hydraulic properties of this aquifer. The parameters such as hydraulic conductivity or transmissivity, dispersivity, porosity, and hydraulic gradient, which influence the groundwater flow and transport, are taken into account as the main variables in constructing a stochastic model. Lack of data of the hydraulic properties as a result of the heterogeneity of the natural porous media leads to the uncertainty of the groundwater flow problems (Neshat, Pradhan, & Javadi, 2015). According to Darcy’s law, travel time of groundwater flow is a function of travel distance, porosity, retardation factor, gradient, and hydraulic conductivity. Application of Darcy’s law in groundwater flow problems and its advantages and limitations is well elaborated in literature
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