Application of machine learning algorithms and Sentinel-2 satellite for improved bathymetry retrieval in Lake Victoria, Tanzania

Abstract

Estimating bathymetric information is vital for aquaculture and navigation applications. Free, high-resolution satellite imagery provides a cost-effective solution for routine bathymetric measurements. We tested six algorithms to retrieve water depth in the Mwanza Gulf of Lake Victoria using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery: the conventional Stumpf method, Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Neural Network (NNET), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). In-situ depth points collected via echo sounders were used to train and validate the algorithms. Performance evaluation metrics included coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and spatial autocorrelation of residuals. Among the algorithms tested, the Stumpf model exhibited moderate performance with an R2 of 0.441, higher MAE (2.078 m), and RMSE (2.964 m) values. The RF algorithm improved performance with an R2 of 0.957, lower MAE (0.476 m), and RMSE (0.823 m). The GBM and XGB algorithms achieved R2 values of 0.960 and 0.956, respectively, with low MAE (0.484 m for GBM, 0.482 m for XGB) and RMSE (0.795 m for GBM, 0.830 m for XGB) values. The NNET algorithm outperformed the GBM and XGB models, obtaining an R2 of 0.963, the lowest MAE (0.438 m), and RMSE (0.761 m). The SVM algorithm demonstrated the best performance with an R2 of 0.965, the lowest MAE (0.403 m), and RMSE (0.745 m), implying the highest accuracy in depth estimation. SVM also showed stable generalization across different locations with insignificant spatial autocorrelation of residuals. Therefore, SVM is recommended for repetitive bathymetry calculations.