Application of Landslide Displacement Forecasting Technology Based on Coupling Model in Power System Safe Operation

Abstract

The extreme natural disasters such as rainstorm have been exerting a great influence on the safe operation of power systems. Landslides caused by rainstorm would cause the tower to tilt. Transmission lines may break off under the influence of unbalanced tension and electro-dynamic force, thus causing the system to power off. In order to improve the reliability of system power supply, the landslide displacement forecasting method based on coupling model is studied in this paper. Firstly, the displacement sequence is decomposed by the variational mode decomposition algorithm to obtain the landslide displacement subsequence. Then the adaptive mutation particle swarm optimization algorithm is combined with the support vector machine to realize the displacement prediction based on the coupled model. The result of this displacement forecasting is used for landslide forecasting and early warning of power system security and informing system operators the dangerous towers to ensure the safe operation of the power system. The case study shows that the model based on the variational mode decomposition and the AMPSO-SVM coupling model is accurate for the forecasting of landslide displacement, provides a theoretical basis for the collapse forecasting of the power system tower and practical basis for the safe operation of the power system.