Abstract
The deformation of the dam is looked upon as the function of the time and the water level , Taylor series are used to erect the functional relationship of the deformation to the time and the water level, the remainder term of Taylor series and the variation of coefficients of the second power of the variation of the time and the second power of the variation of the water level are looked upon as dynamic noises whose mathematical expectation are 0 to erect Kalman filter model and predict the deformation of the dam. An example of calculation shows that the fitted effect and the forecast effect of the model are better.
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