Application of innovative trend analysis on rainfall time series over Rajsamand district of Rajasthan state

Abstract

Abstract Rainfall is an important part of the hydrological cycle, as well as its variability, and is relevant to drought and floods. Long-term changes in hydrological processes are referred to as climate change for an area. Urbanization, population growth, and economic growth are all having negative effects on the environment. The study of trends in the long term is essential from climatic change and socioeconomic perspectives. Examining the temporal variations in rainfall is crucial because changes in rainfall patterns and distribution can have a significant impact on the amount of water available in a watershed. The objective of the study is to assess the long-term (1902–2021) temporal trends in seasonal (winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon) and annual rainfall for the Rajsamand district of Rajasthan state using the innovative trend analysis (ITA) technique. Due to its ability to provide results in graphical form, the ITA approach is a very useful tool for detecting patterns in rainfall time series data. This technique is also used to detect trends as ‘low,’ ‘medium,’ and ‘high,’ which should be considered in future studies on floods ‘high’ and drought ‘low’, respectively. Based on the above study, it is observed that no trend is detected for the annual season, a positive trend is detected in the winter season and a negative trend is detected for pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons in some regimes respectively. The ITA of the S-W monsoon also specifies that in the low regime the nature of the trend is increasing and in the high regime nature of the trend is decreasing. This research will serve as a scientific foundation for assessing and mitigating the effect of climate change on the environment to reduce the risk of weather patterns.