Abstract
In some rainfall-triggered landslides, intensity-duration thresholds can have limited prediction ability; therefore, investigation of alternative approaches that can be used for temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides is needed. This paper presents a methodology for predicting rainfall-induced shallow landslides based on a lumped conceptual hydrological model. The production storage level during the rainfall event and the rainfall sum during the event are used for landslide prediction. Based on these two hydro-meteorological variables a threshold is defined that could be used for rainfall-induced landslides prediction as part of an early warning system. The presented methodology is tested using the meso-scale Selška Sora River catchment case study in western Slovenia where 20 active landslides from the Slovenian National Landslide Database are used to calibrate and evaluate the methodology performance. The results are compared to three different (i.e. local, regional, and global) intensity-duration thresholds. The results of the presented approach are superior in terms of several goodness-of-fit criteria compared to tested local and global ID thresholds. Because only daily rainfall, evapotranspiration, and discharge data are needed to calibrate the selected hydrological model and only daily rainfall and evapotranspiration to run the model, the presented approach could also be useful for data-scarce areas where detailed physically based landslide prediction models that require many data cannot be constructed. Moreover, we have also derived the probabilistic version of the proposed threshold for triggering of shallow landslides using copula functions.
Highlights
Rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are one of the most frequent geo-hazards that can cause large economic damage and can even be responsible for human casualties (e.g. Haque et al 2016; Mikoš et al 2004; Petley 2012)
According to the reviewed literature and due to the need to replace empirical ID thresholds with a more hydrologically based approach, we propose an approach to rainfall-induced shallow landslides prediction using information obtained from a lumped conceptual hydrological model (Perrin et al 2003; Pushpalatha et al 2011; Valery et al 2014a, b)
This paper presents a methodology for predicting rainfallinduced shallow landslides, which is based on the lumped conceptual hydrological model results
Summary
Rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are one of the most frequent geo-hazards that can cause large economic damage and can even be responsible for human casualties (e.g. Haque et al 2016; Mikoš et al 2004; Petley 2012). Rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are one of the most frequent geo-hazards that can cause large economic damage and can even be responsible for human casualties Reliable early warning systems (EWS) are needed in order to issue warnings on time and reduce the number of casualties and economic damage. Empirical rainfall thresholds ( known as intensity-duration (ID) curves or thresholds) are used as part of early warning systems for shallow landslides and debris flows This approach only considers rainfall in a selected time-period (e.g. 5 or 10 days) before the event without consideration of the complex hydrological processes
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