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Abstract
ABSTRACTThe real stress field in an area associated with earthquake generation cannot be directly observed. For that purpose we apply hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) for strong earthquake occurrence in the areas of North and South Aegean Sea considering that the stress field constitutes the hidden process. The advantage of HSMMs compared to hidden Markov models (HMMs) is that they allow any arbitrary distribution for the sojourn times. Poisson, Logarithmic and Negative Binomial distributions as well as different model dimensions are tested. The parameter estimation is achieved via the EM algorithm. For the decoding procedure, a new Viterbi algorithm with a simple form is applied detecting precursory phases (hidden stress variations) and warning for anticipated earthquake occurrences. The optimal HSMM provides an alarm period for 70 out of 88 events. HMMs are also studied presenting poor results compared to these obtained via HSMMs. Bootstrap standard errors and confidence intervals for the parameters are evaluated and the forecasting ability of the Poisson models is examined.
Published Version
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