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Abstract
China’s natural gas imports will keep an upward trend in the future due to its increasing demands. A comparatively accurate prediction of natural gas imports will help the Chinese government make appropriate decisions when formulating energy policies. In this paper, a new grey predication model, GPM_NGI model, was proposed to forecast China’s natural gas imports. Compared with GM (1, 1) and DGM (1, 1) model, the proposed new model performed better in the simulation process and bore smaller mean relative percentage error when used in simulating China’s natural gas imports from 2011 to 2019. Then, the new model was employed to forecast China’s natural gas imports from 2020 to 2022. The results showed that China’s natural gas imports would continue to grow rapidly over the next three years. Therefore, in order to strike a balance between the natural gas supply and demand in the future and avoid overdependence on imports, the Chinese government should take effective measures from both the supply and demand ends, such as making better use of shale gas, wind, and solar energy as well as reducing the industrial dependence on natural gas.
Highlights
As one of the three most commonly-known fossil energy resources, natural gas is featured by its environmental friendliness, utilization security, and high heat production which coal and oil cannot be on par with when used in city gas and industrial fuel supply
It is globally acknowledged that natural gas is probably the most cost-efficient clean energy with low carbon. e recent years have witnessed a climbing growth rate of natural gas demands in China and the upward trend will continue in the few years due to the following reasons
The natural gas consumption in China keeps increasing in recent years, with the apparent consumption being 306.4 billion cubic meters in 2019 and an increasing rate of 8.6% compared with that of 2018, accounting for 8.1% of the primary energy consumption [4]
Summary
Received 5 February 2021; Revised 13 March 2021; Accepted 17 March 2021; Published 2 April 2021. China’s natural gas imports will keep an upward trend in the future due to its increasing demands. A comparatively accurate prediction of natural gas imports will help the Chinese government make appropriate decisions when formulating energy policies. A new grey predication model, GPM_NGI model, was proposed to forecast China’s natural gas imports. Compared with GM (1, 1) and DGM (1, 1) model, the proposed new model performed better in the simulation process and bore smaller mean relative percentage error when used in simulating China’s natural gas imports from 2011 to 2019. En, the new model was employed to forecast China’s natural gas imports from 2020 to 2022. E results showed that China’s natural gas imports would continue to grow rapidly over the three years. Compared with GM (1, 1) and DGM (1, 1) model, the proposed new model performed better in the simulation process and bore smaller mean relative percentage error when used in simulating China’s natural gas imports from 2011 to 2019. en, the new model was employed to forecast China’s natural gas imports from 2020 to 2022. e results showed that China’s natural gas imports would continue to grow rapidly over the three years. erefore, in order to strike a balance between the natural gas supply and demand in the future and avoid overdependence on imports, the Chinese government should take effective measures from both the supply and demand ends, such as making better use of shale gas, wind, and solar energy as well as reducing the industrial dependence on natural gas
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