Application of Fuzzy Inference Methodology in the Problem of Choosing an Effective Investment Project

Abstract

The paper considers the possibility of using the fuzzy set methodology in the problems of analyzing the effectiveness of investment projects. As an example, the authors provide a solution to the problem of comparative analysis of four investment projects: purchase of new equipment at their own expense, modification of equipment to reduce costs, purchase of equipment at the expense of credit funds, registration of equipment for leasing with subsequent redemption. On the basis of standard performance indicators (present value, payback period, profitability), the procedure for fuzzy logical inference based on the rules is implemented. The degree of satisfaction of alternative solutions is characterized by the membership functions of the corresponding linguistic variable from the term set. Using a sequence of transformations, point estimates are calculated that allow you to rank alternative projects by the level of efficiency. The composite inference rule in a fuzzy environment is used to calculate the satisfaction of each alternative. The task is to identify the most effective project based on the fuzzy inference methodology. As a basis for implementing this technique, the authors formulate a rule base that contains fuzzy statements in the form of “If-then”, and membership functions for the corresponding linguistic terms. The given calculations establish the applicability of the methodology of the theory of fuzzy sets in the problems of comparative analysis of the effectiveness of economic solutions.