Abstract
The deployment of new energy trucks is a crucial national strategy in China to achieve deep decarbonization in road transport. Although fuel cell trucks and electric tucks are regarded as alternatives to conventional fuel trucks due to the advantage of zero usage emissions, their applicability for each truck type has not been determined.By developing a total cost of ownership analysis, this study dynamically determines the most economical alternative fuel type for each truck type and identifies when the large-scale deployment of new energy trucks is economically achievable. Then, by conducting a life cycle analysis with a localized database, this study quantitively evaluates the green gashouse emission intensities and their possible changes of different types of trucks. Finally, the emission reduction potential in the truck fleet by applying fuel cell and alternative fuel during 2020–2050 is comprehensively evaluated.The main results suggest that electric trucks are economically suitable for mini and light-duty trucks by 2031 and 2026, while fuel cell trucks suit medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks by 2027 and 2032. The application of alternative fuels in the truck fleet could achieve 28% carbon emissions in 2030 and up to 80% in 2050.
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