Application of Exponential and Logistic Models in Estimating the Population of Bulukumba Regency in 2020-2030

Abstract

Population data is useful as planning material in making various policies, including avoiding imbalances between the number of health facilities and services and the population in an area as well as other facilities such as schools, markets, and other public facilities. Ordinary differential equations of exponential and logistic models are used in modeling population dynamics in Bulukumba Regency to obtain population estimates until 2030. The determination of the future population of Bulukumba Regency is based on the growth rate and capacity obtained using the exponential and logistic approaches. The results obtained show that the estimation using the exponential model and the logistic model estimation for 2015-2019 are close to the data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. However, the logistic model is more accurate than the exponential model which is more significantly close to the data from BPS. So that the results of the logistic model are better than the exponential. The logistic model assumes that Bulukumba Regency has a capacity of K = 450000, while the exponential model assumes that the population increases exponentially.