Abstract
Abstract Hurricane warnings cause people and businesses in the predicted path of the cyclone to take actions that will reduce damage and/or loss of life. Sometimes these actions and their attendant costs are avoidable, since a larger section of the coast is alerted than that which the hurricane actually affects. Using general population densities and the average damage costs due to storms, the authors present a combined game- and decision-theory approach to estimating the economic benefits of more accurate prediction. The potential savings to this economic sector for a substantial improvement in 24-hr forecasting accuracies (that is, the reduction of the average forecast error to one-half its present value) is shown to be at least $15.2 million in the first year. A general equation is presented for various combinations of improvement levels, population densities, percentage of those who protect, and number of warnings per season.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.