Application of Duration Analysis Methods in the Study of the Exit of a Real Estate Sale Offer from the Offer Database System

Abstract

The aim of the article is to present selected methods of duration analysis to assess the probability of exit from the real estate sale offer system, taking into account various types of competing risk (the year of submitting the property for sale). The study used the cumulative frequency function and the complement to unity of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Using estimators, the authors compared the probability of withdrawing the real estate sale offer from the offer database due to: the sale of real estate and suspension or withdrawal of the offer. The analysis was carried out on the basis of data obtained from the West Pomeranian Association of Real Estate Brokers in Szczecin regarding the sale of residential real estate on the underdeveloped market—Szczecin. The survey is innovative because the calculation of the offer duration takes into account the properties that have been sold and are still current (on the day of the end of the survey). The probability of selling a residential property decreased significantly after 180 days in the MLS system. Apartments registered in 2018 and then in 2019 were the fastest to be sold. Due to a large number of censored observations, it was not possible to determine the survival function quartiles for 2017 and 2020.