Application of Doppler sodar in short-term forecasting of PM10 concentration in the air in Krakow (Poland)

Abstract

Abstract. This paper describes an attempt to use data obtained from sodar (sound detection and ranging) for short-term forecasting of PM10 concentration levels in Krakow. Krakow is one of the most polluted cities in central Europe (CE) in terms of PM10 concentration. This is due to the high municipal emissions. Thanks to intensive corrective actions taken by the city authorities, these are being effectively eliminated, but the unfavourable topographic location of the city limits natural ventilation. The article describes all these conditions, focusing on presenting the method of short-term correction of air quality for the time needed to take quick corrective actions by the city authorities in the event of anticipated exceedances of the permissible values. Based on several years of measurements of the physical properties of the atmosphere with sodar, the authors of the paper suggest that sodar data could be considered for operational use to generate short-term predictions. The proposed method is based on the use of the spectrum, i.e. the set of amplitudes of signals returning to the sodar receiver from the reflection of a single-frequency sound transmission and its characteristic properties depending on the physical state of the atmosphere. Similar spectra were parameterised with a single numerical value using statistical methods. It was found that, in some cases preceding high concentrations of PM10, the spectral parameters had similar values. This made it possible to develop a forecasting method for such concentrations by using data mining to search for conditions in historical data closest to the state of the atmosphere at the time of forecasting. In this part of the study, data from 2017–2018 were used. In the next step, three methods of using the sodar data developed for PM10 prediction were proposed, comparing them with the method without sodar use. The study results were tested on independent material using data concerning the episodes of high concentrations of pollutants from October 2021 to March 2022 in Krakow. The findings were considered to be encouraging, also taking into account the speed and low cost of preparing the forecast.