Application of Detection Probabilities to the Design of Amphibian Monitoring Programs in Temporary Ponds

Abstract

Failure to detect a species in an area where it is present is a major source of error in biological surveys. We assessed whether it is possible to optimize single-visit biological monitoring surveys of highly dynamic freshwater ecosystems by framing them a priori within a particular period of time. Alternatively, we also searched for the optimal number of visits and when they should be conducted. We developed single-species occupancy models to estimate the monthly probability of detection of pond-breeding amphibians during a four-year monitoring program. Our results revealed that detection probability was species-specific and changed among sampling visits within a breeding season and also among breeding seasons. Thereby, the optimization of biological surveys with minimal survey effort (a single visit) is not feasible as it proves impossible to select a priori an adequate sampling period that remains robust across years. Alternatively, a two-survey combination at the beginning of the sampling season yield...