Application of Coupled Bred Vectors to Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasting and Ocean Data Assimilation

Abstract

Abstract Coupled bred vectors (BVs) generated from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) coupled general circulation model are designed to capture the uncertainties related to slowly varying coupled instabilities. Two applications of the BVs are investigated in this study. First, the coupled BVs are used as initial perturbations for ensemble-forecasting purposes. Results show that the seasonal-to-interannual variability forecast skill can be improved when the oceanic and atmospheric perturbations are initialized with coupled BVs. The impact is particularly significant when the forecasts are initialized from the cold phase of tropical Pacific SST (e.g., August and November), because at these times the early coupled model errors, not accounted for in the BVs, are small. Second, the structure of the BVs is applied to construct hybrid background error covariances carrying flow-dependent information for the ocean data assimilation. Results show that the accuracy of the ocean analyses is improved when Gaussian background covariances are supplemented with a term obtained from the BVs. The improvement is especially noticeable for the salinity field.