Application of climate risk assessment framework for selected Italian airports: a focus on extreme temperature and extreme precipitation events

Abstract

Due to increased extreme weather events as a consequence of climate change, climate risk analysis has become an essential issue for all critical infrastructures, including airports. The aim of this study is to apply a climate risk assessment framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme temperatures and extreme precipitation events on several Italian airports: Malpensa, Linate, Bergamo, Ciampino, Fiumicino, Napoli, Catania, Palermo, and Cagliari. According to the risk definition recommended in the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC (2022), specific hazard, exposure and vulnerability indicators were identified. The hazard indicators were calculated using the UERRA regional reanalysis for the observed period (1981-2010). The climate variations were evaluated by an ensemble mean of high-resolution climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX initiative for the short (2021-2050), medium (2041-2070), and long-term future period (2071-2100), under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Exposure and vulnerability data were collected from multiple sources, such as official airports documents or websites. The final risk index obtained from the combination of these three factors allowed us to identify which of the selected airports are probable to face the major impacts due to extreme temperature and precipitation events. In addition, starting from this study, a further innovative methodology is currently being evaluated to be adopted for climate change risk assessment by an individual airport. Main steps of this procedures involve the identification of hazard indicators, exposure and vulnerability factors. The success of the analysis performed is closely linked to the ability to actively involve the airport managers/operators through the participation to the workshops as well as the compilation of specific questionnaires in order to establish a participatory process with the aim to provide a comprehensive and detailed analysis. All the methods and analysis (planned and ongoing) have the main goal of supporting the risk assessment airports and providing key information to enable the definition, selection and implementation of appropriate adaptation strategies in relation to characteristics of the airports and then to improve their resilience to climate change.