Application of catastrophe theory to traffic flow variables

Abstract

This paper describes the results of the application of catastrophe theory to real traffic flow data. Using information from the Queen Elizabeth Way Freeway Traffic Management System (QEW FTMS), near Toronto, Ontario, Canada, it shows that catastrophe theory can be effectively applied to traffic flow. Following previous work done by Navin (1986) and Hall and others (1987; Dillon & Hall, 1988; Persaud & Hall, 1989; Forbes & Hall, 1990), this paper demonstrates how a transformation of variables and axes, including translation and rotation of the axes, is able to provide a good fit for a catastrophe theory model to traffic data. The paper also describes the criteria for the selection of the position of a new origin and the determination of the angle for rotating the axes.