Application of ARIMA model in monitoring theuse rate of antibiotics in outpatients in 2010-2018 .

Abstract

In order to continuously promote the rational clinical application of antibacterial drugs and provide data support for hospital scientific management decision-making, we evaluated the use rate of antibiotics in outpatients in 2010-2018. A retrospective analysis of the use rate of antibiotics in outpatients from January 2010 to October 2018 was performed in our hospital. We analyzed the antibacterial use rate in each month in outpatients and evaluated the changes in the antibacterial use rate in outpatients over the past 9 years. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was established and verified, and we predicted the trends of antibacterial use rate in outpatients from November 2018 to March 2019. The level of clinical rational drug use management in our hospital is continually improving. The average monthly use rate of antibiotic drugs in outpatients in 2010-2013 decreased from 13.04 to 12.28% in 2014-2018 (p=0.002). The goodness-of-fit of the ARIMA model is high. The verification results show that the model can accurately predict the changing trend. The average absolute error of the actual value and the fitted value of the antibiotic drug use rate was 0.76% from January to October 2018. The established ARIMA model can better simulate the trend of antibacterial use rate in outpatients. The model can be applied to the short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of antibacterial use rate in outpatients, helping hospitals to reasonably evaluate and monitor the use of clinical antibiotics and provide decision-making services for hospital management.