Application of ARIMA model in forecasting monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis

Abstract

Objective To investigate the variation of the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis with time in Chongqing,so to provide a scientific evidence for the control and prevention of tuberculosis.Methods Using the SPSS 13.0software,we established an ARIMA model with the monthly incidence data of smear-positive tuberculosis(2005-2009),and the model was used to forecast the monthly incidence of Jan.2010to Dec.2010.The short-term forecasting efficacy was evaluated.Results The established ARIMA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12model was suitable for forecasting the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing.The observed values of 2005-2009were in the 95%confidence interval of the fitted values,and the average relative error of the predictive value was 6.31%for 2010.Conclusion ARIMA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12model can satisfactorily forecast the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing,which provides a reliable evidence for control and prevention of tuberculosis.