Application of AquaCrop model for yield and irrigation requirement estimation of sugar beet under climate change conditions in Serbia

Abstract

Climate change impact on field production may play a great role in strategic planning on soil and water resources management. Therefore, the aim of this work was to find out the impact of climate change on sugar beet yield, irrigation depth variation and water saving practices. AquaCrop model v.4.0 was used for yield and irrigation requirement estimation. Input data for future climatic parameters were obtained from EBU-POM for four scenarios A1B, A2, A1B* and A* (*>CO2), and periods of observation were first (2010-2039); second (2040-2069), and third (2070-2099). Undoubtedly, yield will not be reduced in the first period by any scenario, on the contrary, it might be increased. In the second period, yield reduction was observed in A1B and A2 scenarios, hence without the increment of CO2 in the Vojvodina region, whereas in Central Serbia, yield reduction might be expected even in scenarios of A1B and A2*. Irrigation could ensure yield increment in both regions, provided that an increase is more considerable in Central Serbia, due to lower soil water capacity. Application of optimal irrigation depth yield could be increased by up to 57-97% in Vojvodina and 77-285% in Central Serbia. Lower values are obtained in the first period and the highest in the third period. Applying deficit irrigation, water saving would reduce yield in scenario A2, otherwise to obtain high yield, irrigation depth of 300-500 mm should be ensured in Central Serbia. In the same scenario, 300-420 mm of water for irrigation is needed in Vojvodina, but its water savings could be 80-120 mm, or 20%. In scenario A1B, to obtain high yield, 80 mm could be saved in both regions.