Abstract
Based on the finite element theory, Probabilistic finite element method would be able to analyze the elastic response of parameters' uncertainty to model. The assembly of Formation- Cement-Casing in complex conditions was analyzed using ANSYS PDS technique; the probabilistic finite element method was built up for the assembly of Formation-Cement-Casing. This method could be able to consider the uncertainty factors of complex formation and cement, as well as the random factors of casing strength. In accordance with the case study, the effect of assembly's uncertainty factors on casing reliability was analyzed. The casing reliability was calculated under the influence of random factors.
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