Application of air dispersion modelling for exposure assessment from particulate matter pollution in mega city Delhi

Abstract

AbstractThe severe health hazards of respirable suspended particulate matter (RSPM or PM10) are well known, and control of RSPM is an integral part of any effective air quality management plan. The proposed study addresses the implementation of an air quality model for exposure assessment subsequent to its validation for the particulate matter in a megacity in India, namely Delhi, where RSPM concentrations most often exceed the ambient air quality standards. The model validation has been accomplished here for the total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) for which an extensive source inventory is available along with the requisite air quality data. A regulatory air dispersion model of US Environmental Protection Agency, AERMOD (Aermic Dispersion Model version 07026), which is a steady‐state Gaussian Plume Model with improved atmospheric boundary layer physics, has been utilized for this purpose. Model validation shows a satisfactory model performance based on various statistical indicators. Subsequently, RSPM values are obtained from TSPM estimates and applied for exposure assessment for predefined emission control scenarios. The results from the model have been used to analyse mortality change associated with two hypothetical scenarios, namely, (1) reduction of vehicular traffic emissions by a fixed amount due to introduction of metro rail and compressed natural gas based buses in the city and (2) shift to a cleaner fuel in all the thermal power plants. The results from the exposure assessment study showed the importance of control of vehicular emission in improving the air quality and accrued health benefits. Copyright © 2010 Curtin University of Technology and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.