Application of Agent-Based Modeling in Agricultural Productivity in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Jonathan Mellor,Emmanouil Anagnostou,Sardorbek Musayev,Tara Walsh

doi:10.3390/forecast4010020

Abstract

Effective weather forecast information helps smallholder farmers improve their adaptation to climate uncertainties and crop productivity. The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of weather forecast adoption on crop productivity. We coupled agent-based and crop productivity models to study the impact of farmers’ management decisions on maize productivity under different rainfall scenarios in Ethiopia. A household survey was conducted with 100 households from 5 villages and was used to validate the crop model. The agent-based model (ABM) analyzed the farmers’ behaviors in crop management under different dry, wet, and normal rainfall conditions. ABM results and crop data from the survey were then used as input data sources for the crop model. Our results show that farming decisions based on weather forecast information improved yield productivity from 17% to 30% under dry and wet seasons, respectively. The impact of adoption rates due to farmers’ intervillage interactions, connections, radio, agriculture extension services, and forecast accuracy brought additional crop yields into the Kebele compared to non-forecast users. Our findings help local policy makers to understand the impact of the forecast information. Results of this study can be used to develop agricultural programs where rainfed agriculture is common.

Highlights

Improvement of crop productivity requires effective use of resources such as water, land, agriculture inputs, and weather information
Rim Kebele is located in Mecha Woreda, West Gojjam Zone of Amhara Region, Ethiopia [64] (Figure 1)
Survey analysis indicated that maize is the foremost cultivated crop under any rainfall conditions, followed by finger millet and wheat

Summary

Introduction

Improvement of crop productivity requires effective use of resources such as water, land, agriculture inputs, and weather information. Climate change coupled with water and food insecurity makes agriculture more challenging. Even though there have been technological advances in crop and water management, weather and climate are still important factors in agricultural productivity [1]. Maize Production in Ethiopia Ethiopia is the fourth-largest maize producer in. There are more than 2.67 million smallholders in the Amhara region [2], which contributes 28.6% of maize production in the country [3]. Besides a small marketed surplus, 75% of all maize produced is consumed by farming households [4]. A total of 16.7% of the national calorie intake is from maize [5], and the average maize consumption is 45–50.5 kg per person/year [6,7]. Maize is an important crop for food security and the main economic activity in the Amhara region [8]. Maize will continue to be a fundamental cereal of households, in rural areas [9]

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Conclusion