Application of a Temporal Persistence Model to Community Residents' L]ong‐Term Beliefs about the Three Mile island Nuclear Accident1

Abstract

Little is known about the conditions under which beliefs and attitudes about an issue or event will persist over time. The present research took advantage of a “natural experiment”, namely, the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear accident, in order (a) better to understand the nature of individuals' b]eliefs about a major event to which they were exposed and (b) to evaluate a conceptual formulation developed from laboratory‐based experimental literature concerning when beliefs and attitudes are likely to be temporally persistent. Data were collected over a 3‐year period following the accident from two samples of community residents: mothers of young children who lived within a 10‐mile radius of TMI and TMI nuclear power plant employees. Samples of mothers and workers from a western Pennsylvania comparison site were also included in the study design. Results supported the persistence model in several respects. First, TMI subjects' b]eliefs, although more extreme than comparison subjects' v]iews, showed virtually no change during the study period. Second, the factors that the model suggests should account for the observed persistence were indeed consistently important predictors of TMI subjects' b]eliefs over time. Implications of the results for future applied work on long‐term reactions to major events are discussed.