Application of A System Dynamics Model in Forecasting the Effect of Self-care Ability on the Quality of Life of Mildly Disabled Elderly in Nursing Homes

Abstract

Background: The large number of mildly disabled elderly people in China has resulted in the occupation of a large amount of public social resources. They have also imposed a serious social burden on the society. This study predicts that changes in the level coefficients of physical functioning, motor participation, and external environment are associated with quality of life (QoL) among the elderly with mild disabilities in nursing homes. Methods: A simulation model was created using the system dynamics method. Meanwhile, a 50-day simulation was used to predict the subsequent changes in the level of QoL of the elderly. This study was completed in the nursing homes of Chengdu, China, using random sampling and 85 elderly subjects participated to obtain the primary data. The data were analyzed using the Vensim software. Results: The results showed that the level of physical functioning (pain value of 0.241, autonomy of 0.163, and chronic disease of 0.192), the level of motor participation (education value of 0.186, and rehabilitation partner of 0.21), and the level of external environment (medical care value of 0.26, and rehabilitation environment value of 0.184) lead to subsequent changes in the level of QoL of mildly disabled elderly in nursing homes in 30 days. Conclusion: Considering the results of this simulation study, changes in the level of physical functioning, exercise participation, and external environment could forecast the QoL of mildly disabled elderly in the nursing homes of Chania, China. It is necessary to make the required changes in the nursing homes to promote the QoL of these groups.