Application of a random effects negative binomial model to examine crash frequency for freeways in China

Abstract

The freeway system of China is the longest in the world and planned to expand in the following years. However, the safety conditions of freeways are drawing increasing concerns both from the authorities and the public in the country. The safety design and management for freeways are urgently needed considering the current safety situation and great demands of new freeways. The study presented in this paper thoroughly investigated factors affecting safety using detailed data of crashes, traffic characteristics and freeway geometry. A random effects negative binomial (RENB) model was applied to account for spatial variations within groups together with a negative binomial (NB) model. The results indicated a better goodness of fit of RENB model than the NB model. In addition, a good number of factors significantly contributed to crash, such as truck proportion, presence of climbing lane, median barrier offset, curvature and longitudinal grade, were identified. This study was expected to provide a better understanding of how traffic condition and freeway design affect safety and should be useful to freeway engineers to design safe freeways, or develop effective safety countermeasures.