Application of a Machine Learning Algorithm in Prediction of Abusive Head Trauma in Children

Abstract

PurposeWe explored the application of a machine learning algorithm for the timely detection of potential abusive head trauma (AHT) using the first free-text note of an encounter and demographic information. MethodsFirst free-text physician notes and demographic information were collected for children under 5 years of age at a Level 1 Trauma Center. The control group, which included patients with head/neck injury, was compared to those with AHT diagnosed by the Child Protective Team. Differential scores accounted for words overrepresented in AHT patient vs. control notes. Sentiment scores were reflective of note positivity/negativity and subjectivity scores accounted for note subjectivity/objectivity. The composite scores reflected the patient's differential score modified by the subjectivity score. Composite, sentiment, and subjectivity scores combined with demographic information trained a Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm to predict AHT. ResultsFinal composite scores with demographic information were highly associated with AHT in a test dataset. The control group included 587 patients and the test group included 193 patients. Combining composite scores with demographic information into the RF model improved AHT classification area under the curve (AUC) from 0.68 to 0.78, with an overall accuracy of 84%. Feature importance analysis of our RF model revealed that composite score, sentiment, age, and subjectivity were the most impactful predictors of AHT. The sentiment was not significantly different between control and AHT notes (p = 0.87), while subjectivity trended higher for AHT notes (p = 0.081). ConclusionWe conclude that a machine learning algorithm can recognize patterns within free-text notes and demographic information that aid in AHT detection in children. Level of EvidenceIII.