Application of a Land Use Model for Forecasting Environmental Change

Abstract

The concept of ecosystem management has become the paradigm of natural resource management. One basic principle of ecosystem management is that the social dimension and ecological dimension should be integrated together as a whole system. Environmental and ecological impacts in human-dominated landscapes are often caused by human land uses. Therefore, the interrelationships between humans and the environment need to be understood. The objective of this study is to propose a practical approach to integrating social and ecological factors in ecosystem management or environmental planning. This study uses a discrete choice model derived from observed urbanization patterns and characteristics of land and land ownership to examine the processes of land use change, and to predict future urbanization probabilities of agricultural land. The predicted urbanization probabilities are then used to simulate future urbanization patterns and their impacts on forests, wetlands, and agricultural production under different land use control scenarios. Results of the land use choice model is statistically significant, indicating that there is a relationship between urbanization of agricultural land and the observed explanatory variables. Results of the 10-yr simulations show that different land use control strategies may result in different urbanization patterns which, in turn, lead to different urbanization impacts.